Seasonal categories and screen timing
A seasonal category earns most of its year in a short window, and media that arrives after the window has opened is competing for a decision many shoppers have already made. Timing matters more here than weight does.
The constraints are the same ones that govern any in-store plan, compressed into less time.
What determines the window?
The category's own sales pattern in the channel, which is observable rather than assumed. Seasons in retail rarely match calendar seasons, and the channel's window may differ from a large-format one.
Building the timing from the category's own data in these stores is the first step and it is frequently skipped in favour of a national seasonal calendar.
When should media start?
Slightly ahead of the demand curve rather than at its peak, because a shopper deciding early is the one a campaign can still influence. Starting at the peak means arriving after the early decisions.
How far ahead depends on the category's decision horizon, which for an impulse seasonal item is days and for a planned one is weeks.
What has to be in place first?
Distribution. A seasonal listing that lands late makes the media question moot, and in a fragmented channel listings land at different times in different stores.
That is an argument for activating by store as listings land rather than running a flat flight, where the network supports it.
What about the end of the window?
Media running after the season is spending against a demand curve that has collapsed. The end date should be planned and it is frequently allowed to drift because nobody owns it.
Ending slightly before the curve does rather than after it is the safer error.
How does creative differ?
Seasonal creative dates itself, which is fine within the window and wrong outside it. An execution referencing a season that is still playing a fortnight later is visible evidence that nobody is managing the campaign.
Diary the end date when the creative is approved, not afterwards.
What about the following year?
Document what was done and what the sales pattern looked like. Seasonal campaigns repeat annually and institutional memory about them is usually a person rather than a record.
A one-page record of timing, weight and result is what makes next year's version better rather than identical.
What should be agreed in advance?
Start date, end date, the distribution condition, and who confirms the creative has been pulled. Four items, and the last one is the one that gets missed.
Frequently asked questions
How early should a seasonal campaign start?
Ahead of the demand curve by roughly the category's decision horizon, which the sales pattern indicates. Starting at the peak is the most common timing error and it means the campaign misses the shoppers who decided early.
What if distribution is not complete?
Activate in the stores that have it and add stores as listings land. A flat national flight against partial distribution spends a large share on stores that cannot fulfil demand.
Should weight be even across the window?
Front-loading is generally better for a category where the decision is made early. An even spread treats every week as equally decisive, which seasonal curves rarely are.
How do I find the channel's own window?
From category sales in these stores over previous years. It frequently differs from a national or large-format seasonal pattern.
What about weather-dependent seasons?
They vary year to year, which is an argument for a trigger rather than a fixed date where the capability exists. A fixed date for a weather-driven season is right on average and wrong most years.
Who should pull the creative?
One named person, on a diarised date. Seasonal creative left running is the most visible campaign management failure there is.
Can the same creative be reused next year?
Often, with a refresh, and the sales record from this year should inform whether it should be. Reusing without reviewing repeats last year's mistakes.
Does this suit always-on brands?
Seasonal bursts and always-on presence can coexist, with the burst as additional weight. Confusing the two produces a plan with no peak.
What is the most valuable record to keep?
Timing, weight and result, on one page. Channel context is collected by NACS.
### How should next year's plan be built?
From this year's record: when the category actually sold, when the media ran, what the result was and what the distribution position looked like. Those four make next year's timing a decision rather than a repetition.
Seasonal campaigns are the ones most likely to be repeated unchanged, because the same person plans them a year apart and remembers the shape rather than the detail.
A one-page record removes that, and it is the cheapest improvement available to a seasonal programme.
Should the window be the same every year?
Only where the season is calendar-driven. Weather-dependent seasons move, and a fixed date is right on average and wrong most years, which argues for a flexible start where the network supports it.
What about competitor timing?
Worth observing, since a category where everybody advertises at the peak is a crowded moment. Starting slightly earlier is a common and defensible response. Channel context is collected by NACS.
How should the end of the flight be handled?
With a diarised pull date and a named person. Seasonal creative left running is the most visible campaign management failure available and it is entirely avoidable.
Should weight be higher at the start?
For categories where the decision is made early, yes. An even spread treats every week as equally decisive, which seasonal curves rarely are.
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